Complex transport systems with turbulence and contingency planning at the Moldova–EU border

Abstract

The Republic of Moldova–European Union border constitutes a complex transport system characterized by geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuating demand, and episodic disruptions. This paper proposes an integrated analytical framework based on queueing theory, vector analysis, stochastic modeling, and turbulence analogies to optimize operational performance. The study highlights sources of turbulence – regulatory changes, extreme weather conditions, and supply chain shocks – and their impact on waiting times, which range from a few minutes to several days. It argues for the necessity of contingency planning through structural redundancy, digitalization (NCTS, eFTI), infrastructure modernization, and cooperative protocols. Integrated simulations (DES, ABM, SDE) enable anticipation of instabilities and reduction of economic costs associated with delays. The conclusion emphasizes that stabilizing multimodal flows depends on procedural harmonization, capacity enhancement, and the implementation of digital solutions to ensure resilience under turbulent conditions.