Оценка экономической эффективности защитных мероприятий в условиях неопределенности

Abstract

The economic efficiency of protective measures depends on the ratio of the values of the stored crop and the cost of using plant protection products. Decision support systems face different kinds of uncertainty, which generally arise from the initial data, and uncertainty about the characteristics of subjective judgments and decision makers. In many cases the models have a nonlinear relationship between inputs and outputs. Fuzzy classifiers can provide effective tools to manage complexity of objective evaluation of performances. As a result the specialized software OptimClass was developed. This system is based on a combination of fuzzy logic and level set methods. Desirability function allows to associate a normalized value of each objective pi (fi (x), which expresses the degree of satisfaction of the considered objective i. The value of fi(x) is modified by pi to yield a value in the rang {0,1} or user defined rang, which quantifies how well a solution satisfies the requirements. OptimClass modeling process includes the following consecutive stages: 1 - identification of problem and objectives; 2-determining the set of criteria, 3-development of criteria (attributes) and generating alternatives, 4-building desirability function (response function), as an expression of satisfaction and membership functions as an expression of fuzziness; 5- Multi-criteria analysis, 6- Multi-evolutionary optimization. It is better to use a risk indicator for studying the economic efficiency of productions than the price of active substances. "OptimClass" software has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and assessment the potential risk of disеases to make decisions about management and control.