Forecasting and planning urban freight in the context of ecommerce growth

Abstract

The rise of e-commerce requires a new approach to socially responsible city logistics, as European cities face increasing congestion, emissions, and pressure on public space. The study proposes a predictive engineering and mathematical framework for forecasting urban freight growth. Our specific objective is to develop a robust modeling approach to forecast urban freight volume growth to support the creation of adaptive and sustainable urban master plans. Recent data from the European Commission (EC) show that the volume of low-value ecommerce shipments entering the European Union has surged dramatically. In 2024, approximately 4.6 billion lowvalue parcels (valued under €150) were imported into the EU. This represents a steep increase compared with 2023 and 2022: the recorded number more than doubled between 2023 and 2024 (from ~2.4 billion to 4.6 billion) and tripled since 2022 (from ~1.4 billion). Moreover, in 2024, roughly 91% of these low-value e-commerce shipments originated from China. In the Republic of Moldova, national postal service data reflect similar growth trends. In 2024, Moldova’s postal market revenues grew by 35%, reaching 633 million lei. Around 10 million parcels were imported into Moldova that year. There has been a massive rise in cross-border parcel shipments from China to the EU and neighboring countries such as Moldova. This trend significantly increases the load on urban delivery and logistics networks, thereby elevating the volume of freight that urban planning and city logistics must now accommodate. Given such rapid growth, the proposed predictive framework becomes essential. Engineering and mathematical modeling—calibrated with empirical e-commerce flow data—will be critical for forecasting future urban freight loads, designing sustainable infrastructure and buffer zones, implementing efficient flow-control mechanisms, and preventing congestion, environmental degradation, and conflicts over public-space use.