Optimal wind and PV capacity for Moldova's 32.8% electricity target

Abstract

In alignment with the European Energy Roadmap, the Republic of Moldova aims to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its electricity consumption to 32.8% by 2030. To support this target, a simulation model with an hourly resolution over a full calendar year was developed in Excel, using 2024 as the reference year. The model integrates data on existing generation capacities and national electricity consumption, revealing that RES currently account for 17.19% of consumed electricity. An optimization module was implemented to determine the required installed capacities of photovoltaic (PV) and wind power plants to meet the 2030 target. Two scenarios were analyzed: one minimizing investment costs and the other minimizing energy imports. Annual consumption growth rates of 1 3% were also considered. Moldova s current installed capacity stands at 529.4?MW PV and 212.58?MW wind. Results show that Scenario 1 requires up to 1445.75?MW PV with no wind expansion, while Scenario 2 achieves the target with a balanced mix of up to 868.24?MW PV and 579.10?MW wind. The lowest total expenditure combining investment and import costs was observed under the minimum investment scenario.