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Short-term forecasts of fuels consumption in the analysis of energy security

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dc.contributor.author BICOVA, Elena
dc.contributor.author BERZAN, Vladimir
dc.contributor.author GRODETSKY, Mihail
dc.date.accessioned 2019-11-26T10:34:16Z
dc.date.available 2019-11-26T10:34:16Z
dc.date.issued 2017
dc.identifier.citation BICOVA, Elena, BERZAN, Vladimir, GRODETSKY, Mihail. Short-term forecasts of fuels consumption in the analysis of energy security [Resursă electronică]. In: SIELMEN 2017: Proceedings of the 11-th international conference on electromechanical and power systems, 11-13 octombrie, 2017. Chișinău, 2017, pp. 557-561. ISBN 978-1-5386-1846-2. en_US
dc.identifier.isbn 978-1-5386-1846-2
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.utm.md/handle/5014/7190
dc.description Abstract & References en_US
dc.description.abstract Energy security is the main goal of almost all of documents in the energy sector. The monitoring 46 indicators of energy security is based on the annually replenished database to calculate indicators. Fuel consumption indicators are grouped in the separate block. Forecasting is based on values of fuels consumption for time series and used extrapolation growth factors CAGR. Pollutant emissions are additional area that can be analyzed through the built-up forecasts of fuel consumption. In this paper attention is paid to the analysis of 25 pollutants under the list of EMEP-2016. There are many recommendations on expanding the use of biomass instead of coal and gas. Almost the whole biomass is burned in the residual sector. Biofuels is practically the only available energy resource in the country. The calculations allow to do conclusions: 1)The replacement of natural gas with biomass adduce to the growth of all pollutants;2) The replacement of coal with biomass decreases emissions for 13 pollutants, but increases emissions for the other 8 substances (TSP, PM10, PM2,5, BC, Cd, Cr, Zn, HCB);3) Recommendations for the expanded use of biomass and the replacement of coal and natural gas should be reviewed. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers en_US
dc.rights Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States *
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/ *
dc.subject energy security en_US
dc.subject energy balance en_US
dc.subject biomass en_US
dc.subject emissions en_US
dc.subject pollutants en_US
dc.title Short-term forecasts of fuels consumption in the analysis of energy security en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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    11-13 Oct. 2017

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States

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